Chances in General Election

 

 

In addition to the ranked choice voting questions, our poll asked respondents the likelihood that each Democratic candidate could Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election. Only likely Democratic primary voters were asked to rank the candidates, but all registered voters were asked to estimate candidates' likelihood of defeating President Trump in the general election, allowing us to compare responses from Democrats and Republicans. 

The exact wording of the question was: 

"Some voters say any Democrat will defeat Donald Trump in November. Some voters say no Democrat will defeat Donald Trump in November. Others think certain Democrats will beat Trump and others will not.

For each Democrat running for President, please tell me how likely that Democrat is to defeat Trump. You may enter any number between 0 and 100, where zero means you think a particular Democrat has no chance whatsoever to defeat Trump, where 100 means this candidate is absolutely 100% certain to defeat Trump, and where 50 means you think the particular Democrats has a 50-50 chance of defeating Trump."

Three charts below show results from different groups of respondents.

 

infogram_0_5569f03f-4e8d-40f6-9c97-13172a088d30SurveyUSA-Feb2020-vTrumpPartisanshiphttps://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed.js?qzytext/javascript

infogram_0_5fa4667f-c677-4183-9e40-51ac1f147ea0SurveyUSA-Feb2020-vTrumpIdeologyhttps://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed.js?1RRtext/javascript

infogram_0_5bb2f864-9e48-4e5b-9b62-6b254f58d91dSurveyUSA-Feb2020-vTrumpCandidatehttps://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed.js?Doztext/javascript

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