Presidential Campaign Strategies Based on Swing States

Posted on May 04, 2012

Both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are zeroing in on the swing states where either candidate could come out on top in the November elections. However, the unusual amount of attention given to certain states while others are essentially left by the wayside illustrates the problems with the Electoral College system.

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Survey of California Republicans Has Revealing Results

Posted on February 29, 2012

Californians for Electoral Reform conducted a revealing survey of delegates to the California Republican Party state convention last weekend. By enumerating their preferences, California Republican activists give insight into their voting patterns.

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Blame Game: NJ Governor Chris Christie Wrong to Fault RNC's Proportional Rules for Romney's Nomination Travails

Posted on February 28, 2012

According to Romney surrogate New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, the Republican National Committee’s new rules (which led to more states allocating delegates by proportional representation)—not Mitt Romney and his declining vote shares relative to 2008—are at fault for his candidate’s recent travails. Blaming the rules for one’s poor performance or failure to meet expectations is certainly not a novel political strategy, but Christie’s statement—as we will see—gets a lot wrong. Just ask his state’s voters, which now are far more likely to vote in a meaningful primary.

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Paul vs. Paul

Posted on February 13, 2012

Media attention in the 2012 Republican nomination contest is focused on the ace among Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, but it's also instructive to compare Paul to another candidate: himself, circa 2008.

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Romney vs. Romney

Posted on February 01, 2012

Media attention in the Republican nomination contest is focused on this year's results for Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum. It's also informative to compare Romney to another candidate: himself, circa 2008. 

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Presidential Elections State-by-State: Hardening Partisanship

Posted on July 19, 2011

Over the last few decades, presidential election outcomes within the majority of states have become more and more predictable, to the point that only ten states were considered competitive in the 2012 election. Due to the state-by-state winner-take-all method of allocating Electoral College votes, competitive states receive much more campaign attention than their non-competitive counterparts. 


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Not Your Parents' Presidential Elections: The Decline of Swing States, 1960-2008

Posted on June 09, 2011

Summary: American presidential elections have undergone a dramatic change in recent decades.The number of swing states (which are states defined as projected to be won by less than 10% in elections in which the major parties candidates split the national popular vote) has dropped sharply, especially since 1988 and especially among our nation's largest and smallest states.

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