Oakland voters have been told more than once this year to “expect the unexpected” in the race to replace outgoing mayor Ron Dellums. Ten candidates seek the office, making for a crowded and diverse field of contenders. This fascinating mayoral election occurs in the first year that Oakland voters will use ranked-choice voting (RCV) to elect their representatives in municipal government.

Many voters, not kindergarteners, will be employing their basis counting skills come Election Day. That’s because a number of jurisdictions across the country have adopted Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) also known as ranked choice voting for electing local (and even statewide) offices. 

In our final pre-election blog from the non-majority rule desk, evidence of the spoiler effect in this election cycle is still strong: many races remain too close to call.

As November approaches, several major races for governor and U.S. Senate have three candidates polling in double digits, with no candidate close to a majority. That fact and likely ultimate outcome in several races shows the defects of a plurality, vote-for-one system where the majority can split its votes and lose. But plurality voting also creates an ongoing problem for voters who end up abandoning their true preferences.

 This week at the Non-Majority Rule desk I’m going to focus on lessons from two important developments in statewide races: the U.S. Senate race in Alaska and the race for governor in New York. Recent developments in the two states’ races demonstrate another aspect of the dangers of plurality voting: How it can shortcut democracy even when majority victories are ultimately produced. 

Third party and independent candidates continue to have a major impact on several statewide races for governor and U.S. Senate. Indeed, there are 8 states where candidates are polling at more than 10% - the latest being Lisa Murkowski, the sitting U.S. Senator from Alaska who lost her Republican primary, but who now is pursuing a write-in candidacy. At least one race might join them – New York, where Rick Lazio lost the Republican primary, but remains the Conservative Party nominee. Voters certainly seem hungry for more options – a Gallup poll found that 58% support a strong third party in the United States. Here’s a rundown of some of the week’s news from the “non-majority rule” desk.

Building on previous blogs about non-majority rules in primaries and prospective ones in this November’s general elections, FairVote plans a weekly update from the “non-majority rule desk” – with an understanding that there’s a solution available and being put into practice in a growing number of communities: instant runoff voting.

It was another notable week here at the non-majority desk, including nationally prominent ruminations about third parties and independents, including Thomas Friedman of the New York Times predicting an independent presidential bid in 2012 and FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver suggesting such a campaign could succeed.

2010 is a particularly important election. 37 states will elect governors to run their states – often with national implications through the central role governors typically will have in redistricting before the 2012 elections. Control of both the U.S. House and Senate are in play, with the outcome potentially hinging on votes in a handful of states.

North Carolina will make history November 2 as the first state to use instant runoff voting (IRV) in a statewide election in the modern era. As reported in The Times-News, thirteen candidates have filed to run in the race to fill a vacancy on the state Court of Appeals. Additionally, three counties in the state will be using IRV to fill vacancies in three Superior Court races.