Competition is the missing ingredient from American primary elections.
Despite a volatile political climate and several upsets in key races, our 2018 projections for the U.S. House were still 97.5 percent accurate.
Independent and third-party candidates could "spoil" up to 40 U.S. House races in the midterms. But the real spoiler is the system, not the candidate.
63 of the 435 U.S. House races have no incumbent. But what should be an open, more competitive election remains largely predetermined by partisan politics.
FairVote's Monopoly Politics projections versus models from The Economist, Politico, Cook Political Report and more.
Our model shows Democrats would need favor of more than 54 percent of voters to flip the House in November.
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