This poll also asked respondents for their ranked preferences for Staten Island Borough President. In this case, our poll results differ significantly from the first-choice preferences reported on election night.
RCV Tally Scenario 1: Raw Poll Data Only
This poll underestimated support for Vito Fossella by 14 points, while over-estimating support for every other candidate by 2-5 points.
Given the accuracy of Citizen Data polling in the Democratic mayoral primary and the district 50 city council race above, we hypothesize that Fossella’s improved performance is due to Donald Trump’s late endorsement, moving voters towards Fossella in the final days of this campaign which this poll did not capture.
To explore the polling data given the unexpectedly strong first-round performance for Fossella, we re-run the RCV tabulation based on actual first choices rather than first-choice preferences from the poll.
In this scenario, if we hold everything else constant, Matteo would have a narrow advantage because he performs better as a back-up choice among Remauro supporters.
RCV Tally 2: Incorporate Actual First Choices, All Else Constant
However, we might reasonably assume the poll under-counted Remauro -> Fossella transfers to a similar degree as it under-counted Fossella first-choice preferences. As a third scenario, we run the RCV tabulation assuming that when Remauro is eliminated, Fossella earns a 14-point advantage over Matteo compared to the polling average. Using these hypothetical transfer probabilities, a third RCV tally reveals a narrow lead for Fossella in the final round.
RCV Tally 3: Incorporate Actual First Choices and Adjust Transfer Probabilities