In addition to the basic ranked choice voting tabulation above, we ran an RCV simulation model for city council district 50 to explore other possible outcomes and account for uncertainty in the race, especially given the uncertainty about the second-place finisher. Our RCV simulation model is based on 10,000 simulated RCV elections with ballots drawn from the weighted poll responses.
Our model confirms David Carr’s position as a likely winner with a narrow margin. Carr leads in 63% of our simulations, with Pirozzolo winning 33% of the time, and a Kepi victory 3% of the time.
The most likely final-round match-up in our simulations is Carr vs. Pirozzolo, a matchup which occurs 80% of the time. Carr wins most of those match-ups with a median margin of 52%-48%.
A Carr vs. Kepi final round is also possible, occurring in 13% of our simulations. In those scenarios, Carr typically leads by a similar margin.