As we announced last month, we will report on any new announcements from members of Congress who will not seek re-election, and describe how the new open seat impacts our projections for the 2018 elections to the House of Representatives.
This week, Congressman Sander Levin (D-MI-9) announced he would not seek a 19th term. Due to his retirement, FairVote’s projection for his seat changes from a projected Democratic seat to no projection due to the competitive nature of his seat; Michigan’s ninth congressional district has a Democratic partisanship of 52.9 percent.
Two other congressman announced their resignation this week. The Dean of the House of Representatives, Congressman John Conyers Jr. (D-MI-13), announced his resignation earlier this week. With a Democratic partisanship of 79.3 percent, FairVote still projects a Democratic winner at our highest confidence level. Also, Congressman Trent Franks (R-AZ-8) announced his resignation late Thursday night. His seat has a Republican partisanship of 61.6 percent, so FairVote still projects a Republican winner at our highest confidence level.
Due to Levin’s retirement, we now make high confidence projections in 378 seats, 207 for Republicans and 171 for Democrats.
Here is a summary of all vacancies heading into 2018 so far:
And here is the full list of open seats: