As we announced last month, FairVote is tracking announcements from members of Congress who will not seek re-election, and describe how the new open seat impacts our projections for the 2018 elections to the House of Representatives.
Last week was the first week since we began this project in which no member in the House announced that they would not seek re-election, so we did not post an update and instead enjoyed the holiday break.
This week, Congressman Bill Shuster (R-PA-09) and Congressman Gregg Harper (R-MS-03) both announced their decisions to not run for re-election in 2018. Shuster, first elected in 2001, serves as the Chairman of the House Transportation Committee, while Harper, first elected in 2008, serves as the Chairman of the House Administration Committee. Pennsylvania’s 9th District is one of the most Republican districts in the country at 72.3 percent Republican partisanship. Mississippi’s 3rd District is also a solid Republican seat with a Republican partisanship of 63.3 percent. Given the strong Republican partisanship in both districts, FairVote can project a Republican winner in both districts at our highest confidence level.
We still make high confidence projections in 378 races, 207 for Republicans and 171 for Democrats.
Here is a summary of all vacancies heading into 2018 so far:
https://e.infogram.com/42060083-c6f5-4461-84e3-e7d517e0528e?src=embed2018 Open Seats Summary550no0border:none;allowfullscreen
And here is the full list of open seats: