As we continue to track the 2018 electoral landscape, FairVote is reporting announcements from members of Congress who will not seek re-election, and analyzing how the new open seat impacts our projections for the upcoming elections to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Today, Rep. Rick Nolan (D-MN-08) announced that he will retire at the end of his term. Nolan is one of 12 Democrats to represent a district won by President Donald J. Trump in 2016, and the fourth to retire this term (joining MN-01, NH-01, and NV-03).
Nolan’s district has a long Democratic history. Since 1946, Dems have represented the district for all but two years, although Trump won it by 15 points in 2016. Due to Trump’s strong performance in the district, Minnesota’s 8th has a Republican partisanship of 58.8%, high enough for us to project for Republicans at our highest level of confidence.
We now make high confidence projections in 378 races, 207 for Republicans and 171 for Democrats.
Here is a summary of all vacancies heading into 2018 so far:
https://e.infogram.com/42060083-c6f5-4461-84e3-e7d517e0528e?src=embed2018 Open Seats Summary550no0border:none;allowfullscreen
And here is the full list of open seats:
https://e.infogram.com/52066b35-1584-4ead-ad53-9125c0e0905b?src=embed2018 Open Seats550no0border:none;allowfullscreen