As we announced last month, FairVote is tracking announcements from members of Congress who will not seek re-election, and describe how the new open seat impacts our projections for the 2018 elections to the House of Representatives.
This was the first week since we began this project with only a single new vacancy. Congressman Blake Farenthold (R-TX-27) announced his decision to not run for re-election in 2018. First elected in the Republican wave of 2010, Farenthold’s decision to retire does not impact our projections. Texas’ 27th District has a Republican partisanship of 62.8 percent and FairVote projects a Republican victory at our highest confidence level.
We still make high confidence projections in 378 races, 207 for Republicans and 171 for Democrats.
Here is a summary of all vacancies heading into 2018 so far:
And here is the full list of open seats: