Showing that there really is something to our method of measuring state partisanship and the connections between past results and this year's results, my projection of Barack Obama winning 52.5% of the national popular vote made last night before 11 pm eastern time at a time while most states only had preliminary results is looking spot on. The latest popular vote percentages are:
Obama - 52.4%
McCain - 46.3%
Others - 1.3%
For all the talk of a "new electoral map," it largely isn't true -- it's simply a map that looks different when there is a distinct shift in the two-party vote. If we have a 50-50 election in the 2012 election, the map may lookremarkably as it did in 2004. We'll have a full analysis soon.