25th Anniversary of Monopoly Politics

FairVote pioneered the Monopoly Politics methodology in 1997 to show what really matters in congressional elections: partisanship. Our methodology has since been adapted into the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) and other similar measures.

Our ability to examine trends over 25 years of congressional elections demonstrates the degree to which political polarization has increased.

Monopoly Politics’ high-confidence projections were over 99% accurate for five of the last six election cycles. Even in the highly volatile 2018 election cycle where the historic "blue wave" of new Democrats disrupted traditional patterns of partisanship and incumbency, Monopoly Politics still achieved a 97% accuracy rate, correctly projecting 368 of its 379 high-confidence seats.

The Monopoly Politics methodology routinely makes high-confidence projections for 80% of seats or more. Over the last two decades, the number of seats for which we make high-confidence projections has increased, as more seats become "safe" for one party.

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Skewed representation in many states

National partisan representation appears mostly "balanced" -- meaning if 50% of voters prefer Democrats, Democrats will win close to 50% of seats. But balance does not equal fairness, and it masks a troubling lack of representation and competition within states. In other words, with both Democrats and Republicans maximizing gerrymanders and geographic advantages in the states they control, the final national results may come out close to even -- but voters' voices have nothing to do with it. 

For example, new maps in Connecticut and Oklahoma are both likely to produce one-party delegations. But 40% of Connecticut residents vote Republican, and 30% of Oklahomans vote Democratic. With five seats in each state, any fair seat allocation in either state would include representatives of both parties. 

Republicans are underrepresented in Connecticut's 5 Democratic districts

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Democrats are underrepresented in Oklahoma's 5 Republican districts

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Intro to the Fair Representation Act

The FAIR REPRESENTATION ACT breaks us free from monopoly politics. It restores meaningful choice and real representation for voters by combining fewer district lines with a fair voting system: proportional ranked choice voting. 

Under the Fair Representation Act (FRA), every district will be competitive, and every district will have "crossover representatives." Lawmakers will have new incentives to collaborate. 

Below, discover how the FRA will provide better representation for voters, including creating opportunities for "political minorities" like Democrats in Oklahoma and Republicans in Massachusetts, while still preserving majority rule for the majority party in each of those states.

The Fair Representation Act in larger states

In states with six or more Representatives, the Fair Representation Act would create multi-member districts of 3-5 members each.

Each of these districts would elect their Representatives using proportional ranked choice voting. FairVote's projections suggest that every district in the country with 3 or more members of Congress would elect at least one Republican and at least one Democrat. These bipartisan districts create better partisan representation for the voters, create incentives for legislators to collaborate across the aisle when they share a constituency, and drastically reduce the number of voters who are "locked out of representation," currently estimated at 70 million voters.

For example, consider Massachusetts. Each of the Bay State's nine districts is considered a "safe" Democratic seat, but gerrymandering alone is not the culprit. A recent study found that there is no way to draw single-winner districts that would be fair to Republican voters, who typically make up 30% to 40% of the Massachusetts electorate.

The Fair Representation Act would solve these issues, while decreasing the number of district lines to be drawn in the state -- drastically curbing the ability of district-drawers to gain a partisan advantage.

The Fair Representation Act in small and medium-sized states

The Fair Representation Act transforms states with five representatives or fewer into a single statewide district that elects up to five members. 

Twenty-three states elect five representatives or fewer, so those states would no longer need to draw congressional districts at all. 

For example, consider Oklahoma. Instead of electing five representatives from districts, Oklahoma would elect all five statewide using proportional ranked choice voting.

This provides more accurate partisan representation for Oklahomans and creates at least one "swing seat," giving voters a meaningful say in election outcomes. It also frees Oklahoma lawmakers from the expensive, time-consuming redistricting process every decade.