Gubernatorial Plurality Wins Highlight the Need for RCV

Jeremy Seitz-brown

April 29, 2022

Gubernatorial Plurality Wins Highlight the Need for RCV

Whenever a candidate takes office without support from a majority of voters, we are left wondering if things might have turned out differently if the race were narrowed to a contest between the two frontrunners. In high-profile and consequential elections like governors’ races, clear majority backing helps create broad mandates for governing and encourages legislators to work with state leadership to serve the people’s interests. Unfortunately, from 1946 to 2021, 128 of the 1,092 gubernatorial elections nationwide - or 11.7 % - were won by candidates who won less than 50 percent of the vote. If these races had used ranked choice voting (RCV), voters who backed less popular candidates would have the option to express a preference between the top two candidates, providing consensus to the eventual winner.

Since 1946, no gubernatorial general election has been won with less than 35 percent of the vote. The following is a list of every gubernatorial general election over that span won with less than a majority of votes cast, with the state, year, elected winner and winning percentage. Notable recent plurality wins where RCV might have impacted the result include Kentucky in 2019 and Kansas in 2018.

Majority rule paired (with protections for minority rights) is a fundamental tenet of modern American democracy. Improving our elections with ranked choice voting to ensure majority support for elected officials like state governors is an important step toward achieving the promise of a representative republic.

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Plurality Winners in Gubernatorial Races 1946-2021 (128 total)

Won with 35.0-39.9% (14)

State	Year	Winner	Winning %
Rhode Island	2010	Lincoln Chafee	36.10%
Maine	2010	Paul LePage	38.20%
Maine	2006	John Baldacci	38.11%
Texas	2006	Rick Perry	39.03%
Minnesota	1998	Jesse Ventura	36.99%
Maine	1994	Angus King	35.40%
Connecticut	1994	John G. Rowland	36.20%
Hawaii	1994	Benjamin J. Cayetano	36.60%
Alaska	1990	Walter J. Hickel	38.90%
Arizona	1986	Evan Mecham	39.70%
Maine	1986	John R. McKernan Jr.	39.90%
Alaska	1978	Jay S. Hammond	39.10%
Maine	1974	James B. Longley	39.10%
Utah	1956	George Dewey Clyde	38.20%

Won with 40.0-44.9% (12)

State	Year	Winner	Winning %
Rhode Island	2014	Gina Raimondo	40.80%
Minnesota	2010	Mark Dayton	43.70%
Oklahoma	2002	Brad Henry	43.27%
Minnesota	2002	Tim Pawlenty	44.37%
Vermont*	2002	Jim Douglas	44.94%
Alaska	1994	Tony Knowles	41.10%
Utah	1992	Michael O. Leavitt	42.20%
Connecticut	1990	Lowell P. Weicker Jr.	40.40%
Utah	1988	Norman H. Bangerter	40.10%
New Hampshire	1972	Meldrim Thomson Jr.	41.40%
Idaho	1966	Don Samuelson	41.40%
New York	1966	Nelson A. Rockefeller	44.60%

Won with 45.0-49.9% (102)

State	Year	Winner	Winning %
Kentucky	2019	Andy Beshear	49.20%
Connecticut	2018	Ned Lamont	49.37%
Florida	2018	Ron DeSantis	49.59%
Kansas	2018	Laura Kelly	48.01%
Nevada	2018	Steve Sisolak	49.39%
Wisconsin	2018	Tony Evers	49.54%
New Hampshire	2016	Chris Sununu	48.84%
North Carolina	2016	Roy Cooper	49.02%
West Virginia	2016	Jim Justice	49.09%
Vermont	2014	Peter Shumlin	46.40%
Alaska	2014	Bill Walker	48.10%
Florida	2014	Rick Scott	48.10%
Maine	2014	Paul Le Page	48.20%
Massachusetts	2014	Charlie Baker	48.40%
Colorado	2014	John Hickenlooper	49.30%
Hawaii	2014	David Ige	49.50%
Kansas	2014	Sam Brownback	49.80%
Oregon	2014	John Kitzhaber	49.30%
Virginia	2013	Terry McAuliffe	47.80%
Indiana	2012	Mike Pence	49.59%
Montana	2012	Steve Bullock	49.03%
West Virginia	2011	Earl Ray Tomblin	49.60%
Illinois	2010	Patrick J. Quinn	46.80%
Massachusetts	2010	Deval Patrick	48.50%
Florida	2010	Rick Scott	48.90%
Ohio	2010	John Kasich	49.00%
Oregon	2010	John Kitzhaber	49.40%
Connecticut	2010	Dan Malloy	49.50%
Vermont*	2010	Peter Shumlin	49.60%
New Jersey	2009	Chris Christie	48.46%
Minnesota	2006	Tim Pawlenty	46.69%
Nevada	2006	Jim Gibbons	47.93%
Alaska	2006	Sarah Palin	48.33%
Illinois	2006	Rod Blagojevich	49.80%
Washington	2004	Christine Gregoire	48.87%
California	2003	Arnold Schwarzenegger	48.58%
Wisconsin	2002	Jim Doyle	45.09%
Maine	2002	John Baldacci	47.15%
California	2002	Gray Davis	47.26%
Arizona	2002	Janet Napolitano	48.74%
Oregon	2002	Ted Kulongoski	49.03%
Alabama	2002	Bob Riley	49.17%
New York	2002	George Pataki	49.40%
Massachusetts	2002	Mitt Romney	49.77%
Wyoming	2002	Dave Freudenthal	49.96%
New Hampshire	2000	Jeanne Shaheen	48.74%
Missouri	2000	Bob Holden	49.12%
Mississippi*	1999	Ronnie Musgrove	49.62%
Colorado	1998	Bill Owens	49.06%
New Jersey	1997	Christine Todd Whitman	46.90%
Pennsylvania	1994	Tom Ridge	45.40%
Oklahoma	1994	Frank Keating	46.90%
Rhode Island	1994	Lincoln C. Almond	47.40%
New York	1994	George E. Pataki	48.80%
New Mexico	1994	Gary E. Johnson	49.80%
New Jersey	1993	Christine Todd Whitman	49.30%
Oregon	1990	Barbara Roberts	45.70%
Maine	1990	John R. McKernan Jr.	46.70%
Kansas	1990	Joan Finney	48.60%
California	1990	Pete Wilson	49.20%
Texas	1990	Ann W. Richards	49.50%
Arizona	1990	Fife Symington	49.60%
Minnesota	1990	Arne Carlson	49.60%
Michigan	1990	John Engler	49.80%
Nebraska	1990	Ben Nelson	49.90%
Vermont*	1986	Madeleine M. Kunin	47.00%
Alaska	1986	Steve C. Cowper	47.30%
Oklahoma	1986	Henry L. Bellmon	47.50%
Idaho	1986	Cecil D. Andrus	49.90%
Hawaii	1982	George Ariyoshi	45.20%
Alaska	1982	Bill Sheffield	46.10%
California	1982	George Deukmejian	49.30%
Illinois	1982	James R. Thompson	49.40%
New Jersey	1981	Thomas H. Kean	49.50%
Maine	1978	Joseph E. Brennan	47.70%
Ohio	1978	James A. Rhodes	49.30%
Kansas	1978	John Carlin	49.40%
New Hampshire	1978	Hugh J. Gallen	49.40%
Texas	1978	William P. Clements	49.96%
Alaska	1974	Jay S. Hammond	47.70%
Ohio	1974	James A. Rhodes	48.60%
Kansas	1974	Robert F. Bennett	49.50%
New Mexico	1974	Jerry Apodaca	49.90%
Texas	1972	Dolph Briscoe	47.90%
New Hampshire	1970	Walter Peterson	46.00%
Nevada	1970	Mike O'Callaghan	48.10%
Oklahoma	1970	David Hall	48.40%
Georgia*	1966	Lester Maddox	47.40%
Maryland	1966	Spiro T. Agnew	49.50%
Alaska	1966	Walter J. Hickel	50.00%
Virginia	1965	Mills E. Godwin Jr.	47.90%
Minnesota	1962	Karl F. Rolvaag	49.70%
Massachusetts	1962	Endicott Peabody	49.90%
North Dakota	1960	William L. Guy	49.40%
Wyoming	1958	J. J. Hickey	48.90%
Connecticut	1954	Abraham A. Ribicoff	49.50%
New York	1954	Averell Harriman	49.60%
Massachusetts	1952	Christian A. Herter	49.90%
Michigan	1952	G. Mennen Williams	49.96%
Connecticut	1950	John D. Lodge	49.70%
Michigan	1950	G. Mennen Williams	49.80%
Connecticut	1948	Chester Bowles	49.30%

*Denotes an election where the race was decided by the state legislature because of no majority

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