Click here to see the projections.
Since 1997, FairVote has projected results in congressional elections relying principally on a simple partisanship metric with remarkable accuracy. This year, we applied that same methodology to making projections for a hypothetical Congress elected under our simulation of the Fair Representation Act.
With this online spreadsheet, you can adjust the "national two party preference" to see how each party would perform in every one of the districts under various hypothetical scenarios. The result is a map that closely tracks a proportional outcome.
Because our partisanship metric assumes a two-party system, this projection is not able to assess the impact of third party and independent candidates, nor can it give a meaningful sense of intraparty (same party) competition. Nonetheless, it does demonstrate how the new system can render proportional results within the two major parties to a far greater degree than the current system, as well as how it promotes greater two-party competition, and shared representation of majority and minority viewpoints in nearly every multi-winner district.