Voices & Choices

Bangor Daily News simulations point to Mills victory

Bangor Daily News simulations point to Mills victory

As the ranked choice voting ballots are being counted in the crowded Democratic primary for governor of Maine, the Bangor Daily News just published an eye-catching story that points to a win by state Attorney General Janet Mills.

The BDN simulations combines unofficial returns with exit polling the newspaper conducted on Election Day.

The paper notes:

…clerks only released first-round results to the public on and after Election Day. Ranked-choice counting must be done by the secretary of state’s office. It is underway in Augusta now and unofficial results are expected to be released next week.

But exit polling gives us a good idea about Mills’ advantage. The BDN did exit polling of both gubernatorial primaries in eight cities and towns on Election Day, gathering ranked-choice voting data from 491 people who said they were Democrats. The data were then weighted according to real first-round returns as of Friday morning and by the age and gender of people who did and didn’t respond to the survey and 1,000 ranked-choice simulations were done.

It concludes, the most common result of those simulations is a victory by Mills.

The story contains interactive, easy to read pie charts that map out the round-by-round results… real election/voting nerd eye candy and totally worth checking out!

Read the story and take in the cool graphs here.

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