FairVote pioneered the Monopoly Politics methodology in 1997 to show what really matters in congressional elections: partisanship. Our methodology has since been adapted into the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) and other similar measures.
Our ability to examine trends over 25 years of congressional elections demonstrates the degree to which political polarization has increased.
Monopoly Politics’ high-confidence projections were over 99% accurate for five of the last six election cycles. Even in the highly volatile 2018 election cycle where the historic "blue wave" of new Democrats disrupted traditional patterns of partisanship and incumbency, Monopoly Politics still achieved a 97% accuracy rate, correctly projecting 368 of its 379 high-confidence seats.