- Monopoly Politics 2020
- 2020 House Election Projections
2020 House Election Projections
On November 9, 2018, FairVote projected the results of the 2020 elections. See our full projections at our interactive map, and on our interactive spreadsheet.
Our high confidence projections have been over 99 percent accurate across four election cycles, including being 100 percent accurate in 2012 and 2016. We have projected more than 80 percent of seats at this highest level of confidence since 2014. Our methodology relies only on prior voting data, without any modifications for campaign finance, public scandals, or opponent quality.
Our 2020 projections reveal:
- 358 seats are safe enough to be called at our highest level of confidence, representing over 82.3 percent of districts.
- Only 35 seats are truly in swing, not significantly favoring either major political party.
- Even with Democrats benefiting from greater incumbency advantage, the underlying structural advantage for Republicans means that Democrats will lose the House in 2020 unless that year favors Democrats by about a four point margin, akin to the 2012 election.
- In 19 states, we would expect one party to earn at least one seat more than their fair share by the statewide vote. Of those, 13 favor Republicans and six favor Democrats.
Our full projections are contingent on the nature of the year. Use the interactive map or spreadsheet linked above to see which districts would be projected for which party based on whether the year favors Republicans or Democrats.