Survey of California Republicans Has Revealing Results

Posted on February 29, 2012

Californians for Electoral Reform conducted a revealing survey of delegates to the California Republican Party state convention last weekend. By enumerating their preferences, California Republican activists give insight into their voting patterns.

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Blame Game: NJ Governor Chris Christie Wrong to Fault RNC's Proportional Rules for Romney's Nomination Travails

Posted on February 28, 2012

According to Romney surrogate New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, the Republican National Committee’s new rules (which led to more states allocating delegates by proportional representation)—not Mitt Romney and his declining vote shares relative to 2008—are at fault for his candidate’s recent travails. Blaming the rules for one’s poor performance or failure to meet expectations is certainly not a novel political strategy, but Christie’s statement—as we will see—gets a lot wrong. Just ask his state’s voters, which now are far more likely to vote in a meaningful primary.

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Paul vs. Paul

Posted on February 13, 2012

Media attention in the 2012 Republican nomination contest is focused on the ace among Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, but it's also instructive to compare Paul to another candidate: himself, circa 2008.

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Romney vs. Romney

Posted on February 01, 2012

Media attention in the Republican nomination contest is focused on this year's results for Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum. It's also informative to compare Romney to another candidate: himself, circa 2008. 

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Not Your Parents' Presidential Elections: The Decline of Swing States, 1960-2008

Posted on June 09, 2011

The number of swing states (generously defined as ones projected to be won by 9% or less in a year in which the major parties candidates split the national popular vote) has dropped sharply since 1988, especially among our nation's largest and smallest states. In 2008, only one of the 13 smallest states and only 4 of the 27 smallest states were swing states. This trend shows no indication of changing, with all trends pointing to wider division. 

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Fuzzy Math: Wrong Way Reforms for Allocating Electoral College Votes

Posted on June 28, 2009

This updated analysis (first published in 2007) analyzes two of the three major options available to state leaders interested in reforming how a state allocates its Electoral College votes: the whole number proportional system and congressional district system. It evaluates them on the basis of whether they promote majority rule, make elections more nationally competitive, reduce incentives for partisan machinations and make all votes count equally. Our analysis reveals that both of these methods fail to meet our criteria and fall far short of the National Popular Vote plan, which is the third major option available to reformers.

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