Reports

Vote-Splitting and Runoff Election Loom for Louisiana Senate Race

Posted on November 08, 2016

As the race for control of the U.S. Senate unfolds on election night, most eyes will be trained on the handful of particularly competitive Senate races. However the dynamics that are likely to unfold in Louisiana are promising to be particularly intriguing. With so many competitive candidates running for Senate, we’re almost certain to see severe vote-splitting, with no candidate winning even close to a majority of the votes, requiring a runoff election.

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Tracking the Candidates Through the Final Campaign Push: Lots of Stops but Few States

Posted on November 02, 2016

The FairVote presidential tracker, which has been regularly used this fall by National Popular Vote, looks at where major party candidates for president and vice-president have been rallying their supporters at events that are open to the public, free and intended to influence local voters. Our data for the tracker is based on local news reports and the campaigns’ public schedules.

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Correcting Washington Post on Presidential Partisanship Trends

Posted on September 06, 2016

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza in his "Monday Fix" political column writes that "Minnesota and Wisconsin are getting slightly more Republican with each passing presidential election, but it is a very slow change." This isn't true, actually, and a good reminder of why the National Popular Vote plan for president is so important.

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The Competition Problem is Real: A Response to FiveThirtyEight, Part 1

Posted on August 29, 2016

Professors Hersh and Fraga’s analysis of electoral competition makes the case that “the picture is much rosier” than FairVote characterizes in calling one of our reports “dubious democracy.” But we stand firmly by our position. In this first post we examine the presidential elections and show that that levels of electoral competition in states are far from healthy. Without rose-tinted glasses, this conclusion is inescapable.

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Tracking the Candidates: Current Electoral College Rules Mean Most Americans Ignored

Posted on July 29, 2016

In the weeks since the California primary, when Hillary Clinton joined Donald Trump in becoming her party’s presumptive nominee for president, FairVote has tracked both candidates’ campaign appearances. FairVote’s similar analysis in 2012 showed just how much the candidates focus on swing states that might tip the election with our current Electoral College rules.

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This Congressional Race Helps Show What’s Wrong with American Elections

Posted on June 30, 2016

In addition to forcing different groups of voters to compete for the scarce representation they are afforded by this system, the way we elect Congress is also plagued by issues such as plurality winners, turnout gaps, vote-splitting, single-party dominance, and incumbency advantages. All of these were on display in the District 13 primary, and all of these contribute to making Congress so dysfunctional.

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How California Incumbents Fare under Top-Two Voting

Posted on June 17, 2016

Every election cycle one of the most notable types of results is an incumbent candidate losing their seat, especially when that candidate loses in a primary. Of course, it doesn’t happen very often in our congressional primaries.

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California's 2016 Top Two Primary Results at a Glance

Posted on June 10, 2016

The 2016 primary marked the third election cycle of statewide races when California employed the “Top Two” method, in which candidates from all parties for State Assembly, State Senate, US House, and this year, Barbara Boxer’s open US Senate seat, appeared on the same ballot. FairVote will be providing more extensive analysis of this unique system’s outcomes in the coming weeks, but we wanted to share a few key findings now.

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