Pages tagged "Author Theodore Landsman"


Shifts in Incumbency Advantage in the US House

Posted on What's New by Theodore Landsman on April 25, 2017
Shifts in Incumbency Advantage in the US House

Despite strong anti-establishment sentiment, which contributed to Donald Trump’s election and Bernie Sanders’ strong primary performance, more than 98% of U.S. House members won re-election in November. Not only were most incumbents re-elected, they were re-elected by significantly more comfortable margins than in 2014. The “incumbency bump” -- our measure of the strength of congressional incumbents -- rebounded from a 20-year low of 2.55% in 2014 to 3.2%. In other words, incumbents earned an average of 3.2 percentage points more of the vote than the partisanship of their district suggests they would earn.

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FairVote's Projections for U.S. House Elections in 2018

Posted on What's New by Theodore Landsman on April 07, 2017
FairVote's Projections for U.S. House Elections in 2018

Last month, FairVote released its projections for the November 2018 U.S. House elections that will take place nearly two years from now. If every current incumbent (excluding the five members of the 115th Congress who have already vacated their seats) were to seek re-election, we can confidently project that at least 368 of them, 205 Republicans and 163 Democrats would win.

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How to Elect More Wendy Davis's

Posted on Quick News by Kelsey Kober, Theodore Landsman on March 22, 2017

In 2008, Wendy Davis was elected to the Texas State Senate from a district that leans Republican. However, despite this, crossover representatives in the Texas Statehouse are rarer than ever.

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Los Angeles City Election Turnout Projected to Hit Record Low. Would RCV Help?

Posted on What's New by Rob Richie, Theodore Landsman on March 16, 2017
Los Angeles City  Election Turnout Projected to Hit Record Low, Would RCV Help?

Voter turnout in many city elections is hitting all-time lows. There is no single reason for such declines, evidence strongly suggests ranked choice voting (RCV) does not lead to lower turnout despite some claims to the contrary. Indeed, adoption of RCV has allowed cities to avoid primary and runoff elections that almost always had far lower turnout than the general election.

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How to Get Elected to Congress With Only 50,595 Votes

Posted on What's New by Theodore Landsman on March 15, 2017
How to Get Elected to Congress With Only 50,595 Votes

In the 2016 U.S. House election, Jim Bridenstine (OK-1) won reelection in a race with just 62,655 votes cast (or 8.1% of the district’s 2010 census population). Meanwhile, Ryan Zinke (MT) won his 2016 re-election bid with more than 507,000 votes cast, and earned more than five times as many votes as Bridenstein on his way to a victory that was (relatively) close. How can this be?

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RCV Voters Reject Backroom Dealing in West Australia Election

Posted on Quick News by Haley Smith, Theodore Landsman on March 14, 2017

This past Saturday, the Australian Labor Party took control of the Western Australian state parliament after more than eight years of Liberal Party leadership. In a historic swing election, voters emphatically rejected the ruling Liberal-National coalition, with outgoing premier Colin Barnett conceding the race less than three hours after the polls closed. Support for the popular minor party, One Nation, was low as well.

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The 115th Congress: Some Findings About Its Newest Members

Posted on What's New by Theodore Landsman on March 03, 2017
The 115th Congress: Some Findings About Its Newest Members

As Congress creeps into action amid a confusing and often hostile landscape, new members of Congress are already having a major impact on policy.

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Understanding Condorcet Winners and Non-Monotonicity Through the Lens of Berkeley's District 2 City Council Race

Posted on What's New by Theodore Landsman on March 02, 2017
Understanding Condorcet Winners and Non-Monotonicity Through the Lens of Berkeley's District 2 City Council Race

What can we learn from our near miss with the absurd world of election irregularities? For one thing, while these situations worry some academics who study election systems, we have little evidence that they happen in practice.

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Magic Numbers: Small Vote Shifts in Key States Could Have Altered Electoral College Outcomes

Posted on What's New by Andrea Levien, Theodore Landsman on January 13, 2017
Magic Numbers: Small Vote Shifts in Key States Can Alter Electoral College Outcomes

One commonly cited benefit of the Electoral College is that, even when the national popular vote for president is close, it creates a decisive victory for one candidate or the other. However, these "decisive" victories are often more tenuous than they seem. There are plenty of elections in which slight vote shifts in key states would have changed the winner of the Electoral College vote.

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All RCV Elections in the Bay Area So Far Have Produced Condorcet Winners

Posted on What's New by Theodore Landsman on January 06, 2017
Every RCV Election in the Bay Area So Far Has Produced Condorcet Winners

San Francisco started using ranked choice voting in 2004. Since then, four Bay Area cities have held 138 elections for the 53 offices elected in those cities. In every single instance, the winner of the election has been the candidate who would defeat all others in a head-to-head contest -- that is, “the Condorcet winner.”

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