Monopoly Politics 2014 and the Fair Voting Solution

// Published November 7, 2013

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2014 and the Fair Voting Solution report, presented below in the form of an interactive map and links to analysis and state profiles, is an important resource for understanding U.S. House elections as they are and as they could be with a simple statutory change that would open every corner of the country to meaningful two-party competition and fair representation. We project November 2014 winners in more than 370 of 435 House races using a methodology that will allow us to predict 2016 winners in an even greater number of districts on November 6th -- onjy two days after the 2014 election. 

The report presents our projections, in-depth analysis of problems with congressional elections as they are, and our 50-state plan for electing Congress using ranked choice voting, a fair representation voting system designed for multi-seat districts. The Flashmap below displays the partisan split, competitiveness, and racial representation of congressional districts and allows users to compare these measurements with the results of a fair representation voting system. Each state page links to a detailed profile with information on every 2014 House race.

Projections and data for all 435 congressional districts are regularly updated, and can be downloaded or viewed online. Users also can also use our model to make their own projections, by adjusting the values in two cells: one determines the national preference between the major parties (we use a 50-50 projection), and the other determines the average advantage earned by incumbents (we give an average "incumbency bump" of 4.5% in winning percentage).  Our model projects sure winners in more than 85% of House races using a cautious methodology that achieved 100% accuracy in 2012, when our Monopoly Politics 2012 projections projected winners in 333 races. 

Here is a summary of our latest projections for the 435 seats at stake in the 2014 U.S. House elections, as of July 8, 2014: Safe Republican: 199 seats (45.7%), Safe Democrat: 151 seats (34.7%);  Lean Republican: 29 seats (6.7%); Lean Democrat: 31 seats (7.1%); and Tossup: 25 seats (5.7%).  Republicans in a 50-50 election are likely to increase their 54-46% edge in House seats, while Democrats would not be likely to win a majority without having the support of more than 56% of voters. Fewer than 15% of seats have the potential to be competitive, while the actual number of close races will be far smaller. Adoption of a fair representation system, as outlined in the report, is the only way to eliminate this partisan distortion and ensure that every voter is able to participate in a meaningful contest in every election.

 

 

Part I: Analysis

Chapter 1: The Power of Monopoly Politics

 

Chapter 2: The Problems of Monopoly Politics

 

Chapter 3: The Solution to Monopoly Politics

 

Part II: State-by-State Projections and Data

 

 

Alabama Hawaii Massachusetts New Mexico South Dakota
Alaska Idaho Michigan New York Tennessee
Arizona Illinois Minnesota North Carolina Texas
Arkansas Indiana Mississippi North Dakota Utah
California Iowa Missouri Ohio Vermont
Colorado Kansas Montana Oklahoma Virginia
Connecticut Kentucky Nebraska Oregon Washington
Delaware Louisiana Nevada Pennsylvania West Virginia
Florida Maine New Hampshire Rhode Island Wisconsin
Georgia Maryland New Jersey South Carolina Wyoming

 

Appendices:

  1. Methodology
  2. Literature Review
  3. Bibliography
  4. Full Text of Model Fair Representation Voting Act
  5. Projections, partisanship, and data for all 435 districts
  6. Projections for all proposed super districts

 

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