Monopoly Politics 2012

// Published July 23, 2012

What's the partisan landscape in Congressional races in your state? 

 

Monopoly Politics 2012 includes our analysis of the impact of redistricting, the partisan fundamentals for each state and each district, and our projections for the 2012 Congressional elections. 

Update: November 7, 2012: All 333 of those projections proved to be correct.


2011-2012 Redistricting and District Partisanship Data for Every State

  • Overview of each state's redistricting process in 2011-2012
  • The partisanship rating for all 435 House districts
  • The partisanship rating for incumbents' 2012 district compared to their 2010 district, along with information about incumbents' past performance
  • Our 2012 election projections for every district based on these factors, made in July

 

Click a state name below for each report. Click here for National projections. Our methodology clarifies the reports. 

Alabama Hawaii Massachusetts New Mexico South Dakota
Alaska Idaho Michigan New York Tennessee
Arizona Illinois Minnesota North Carolina Texas
Arkansas Indiana Mississippi North Dakota Utah
California Iowa Missouri Ohio Vermont
Colorado Kansas Montana Oklahoma Virginia
Connecticut Kentucky Nebraska Oregon Washington
Delaware Louisiana Nevada Pennsylvania West Virginia
Florida Maine New Hampshire Rhode Island Wisconsin
Georgia Maryland New Jersey South Carolina Wyoming

 

Pre-Election Analysis


Post-Election Analysis
Update: November 29, 2012

  • FairVote Correctly Predicts 333 House Races: In July, FairVote made projections for 333 of the 435 congressional races in the 2012 election, all of which proved to be correct
  • Partisan Bias in U.S. House Elections: In a Washington Post op-ed, FairVote Executive Director Rob Richie argues that House elections have a significant structural bias in favor of Republicans as a result of winner-take-all elections
  • The Vanishing Congressional Moderate: The number of moderates in Congress is likely to further decline as a result of the 2012 elections, as district partisanship shows
  • Most Voters Wanted a Democratic House: FairVote's analytic methods demonstrate that although the Republicans won the House, 52% of voters preferred Democratic candidates
  • Incumbency Bump Analysis: An explanation of the incumbency bump received by incumbent candidates in 2012, and how that advantage fits into the context of recent congressional elections


Source Data: Find here a spreadsheet containing the complete data used to create the Monopoly Politics 2012 and Fair Voting 2012 reports. This data includes partisanship ratings and racial makeup for each congressional district before and after redistricting, as well as a breakdown of each proposed Super District by partisanship and race.

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Dubious Democracy

  • Comprehensive state-by-state data on competition and representation in every state since 1982

Fair Voting 2012

  • FairVote's proposed maps for every state that would put nearly every voter in the United States in the position to elect candidates of choice in a competitive election
  • Fair Voting Interactive Map

 

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