Projection for Obama - 52.5% of national popular vote in a red-blue nation

// Published November 4, 2008
Looking at our Presidential Election Inequality report and the partisan measures for different states in 2004, my projection for Sen. Barack Obama is in the range of 52% to 53% of the national popular vote. There aren't enough states with definitive results in yet, but in general Obama is running some 2% to 3% above the projected partisanship in a 50-50 year. Some battleground states are definitely changing their partisanship -- with Indiana potentially the single most dramatic example so far- but the partisan map is not changing nearly as much as some observers might suggest if Obama ends up winning a comfortable Electoral College victory. That general lack of change suggests that in a 50-50 race in 2012, the map might well look similar to what it has been for several elections -- that is, if we haven't passed the National Popular Vote plan.