National Popular Vote projection nearly spot on
// Published November 5, 2008
Showing that there really is something to our method of measuring state partisanship and the connections between past results and this year's results, my projection of Barack Obama winning 52.5% of the national popular vote made last night before 11 pm eastern time at a time while most states only had preliminary results is looking spot on. The latest popular vote percentages are:
Obama - 52.4%
McCain - 46.3%
Others - 1.3%
For all the talk of a "new electoral map," it largely isn't true -- it's simply a map that looks different when there is a distinct shift in the two-party vote. If we have a 50-50 election in the 2012 election, the map may lookremarkably as it did in 2004. We'll have a full analysis soon.