Voices & Choices

Projection for Obama - 52.5% of national popular vote in a red-blue nation

Projection for Obama - 52.5% of national popular vote in a red-blue nation
Looking at our Presidential Election Inequality report and the partisan measures for different states in 2004, my projection for Sen. Barack Obama is in the range of 52% to 53% of the national popular vote. There aren't enough states with definitive results in yet, but in general Obama is running some 2% to 3% above the projected partisanship in a 50-50 year. Some battleground states are definitely changing their partisanship -- with Indiana potentially the single most dramatic example so far- but the partisan map is not changing nearly as much as some observers might suggest if Obama ends up winning a comfortable Electoral College victory. That general lack of change suggests that in a 50-50 race in 2012, the map might well look similar to what it has been for several elections -- that is, if we haven't passed the National Popular Vote plan.
 

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