Posted by Drew Penrose on November 30, 2017
As we announced earlier this month, we will report on any new announcements from members of Congress who will not seek re-election, and describe how the new open seat impacts our projections for the 2018 elections to the House of Representatives.
Last week, two long-term congressmen separately announced their retirements. Congressman Joe Barton (R-TX-6) and Congressman Luis Gutierrez (D-IL-4) announced that they will not seek re-election in 2018. According to our partisanship measure, Barton vacates a district with a Republican partisanship of 57.2 percent. That makes it a safe Republican district that we can project for a Republican winner at our highest level of confidence.
Gutierrez’s district has a Democratic partisanship of 83.4 percent. Therefore, we classify the district as a safe Democratic district and can project a Democratic winner at our highest level of confidence. Consequently, these announcements do not change our overall projections. We still make high confidence projections in 379 seats, 207 for Republicans and 172 for Democrats.
Here is a summary of all vacancies heading into 2018 so far:
And here is the full list of open seats: