National Popular Vote projection nearly spot on

by Rob Richie // Published November 5, 2008
Showing that there really is something to our method of measuring state partisanship and the connections between past results and this year's results, my projection of Barack Obama winning 52.5% of the national popular vote made last night before 11 pm eastern time at a time while most states only had preliminary results is looking spot on. The latest popular vote percentages are:

Obama - 52.4% McCain - 46.3% Others - 1.3%

For all the talk of a "new electoral map," it largely isn't true -- it's simply a map that looks different when there is a distinct shift in the two-party vote. If we have a 50-50 election in the 2012 election, the map may lookremarkably as it did in 2004. We'll have a full analysis soon.

Comments currently closed for National Popular Vote projection nearly spot on

  • Good point. This change in allocation rules was already proposed in Nebraska last year, and I suspect that it will be raised again.

    Posted by Rob Richie, 2008-11-05 18:52:35 (5 years ago)

  • Given the recent closeness of the presidential race in NE-2, I'd bet there's going to be a lot of clammering to change NE to winner take all. I wonder if National Popular Vote supporters shouldn't try to latch on to that, insisting on pairing any change to winner take all with the adoption of the compact.

    Posted by Eddy, 2008-11-05 17:47:42 (5 years ago)