Our ‘18 House projections: noncompetitive races, more Monopoly politics

Posted by Rich Robinson on October 20, 2017

FairVote’s projections of the 2018 U.S. House of Representatives races are out and once again, noncompetitive elections, heavily-advantaged incumbents and partisan skew rule the American electoral landscape.

The findings are part of FairVote’s Monopoly Politics 2018 Report, where we were able to make “high confidence” projections for 86 percent of all U.S. House races (374 of 435 House seats) more than a year in advance -- using only past election results from these districts.  

Of these 374 projections, 208 races are safe for Republicans and 166 are safe for Democrats. Of the 61 seats our high-confidence model did not project, 22 would favor Republicans, 18 would favor Democrats, and another 21 are toss-up seats if voter preferences were divided equally between the party and incumbency advantages the same as in 2016. Republicans need to only win 10 of the unprojected seats to maintain their majority. 

FairVote launched an online tool that allows everyone to see projections in every race and the impact of potential changes in the two-party preference between Democrats and Republicans and the level of support for incumbents - factors that tend to affect all races in a “uniform swing.” Users can see the partisan landscape in their district, test their own predictions for the midterms, and measure the impact of different kinds of years. A “summary” box shows the overall impact of a user’s choices, along with state-by-state details in a summary sheet.

To read more, click here.



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