Now that’s what I call a Christmas bonus
January 9th, 2008
Prez08
Prez08 tracks the institutional dynamics of November's upcoming elections.
So, we happen to have an extremely contested primary race on both sides, but you wouldn’t know it from the delegate counts coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire.
In Iowa, Huckabee ran away with 30 delegates, and only 7 for Romney. This despite the fact that they were separated about about 9% of the vote.
In New Hampshire, McCain didn’t exactly get a landslide. He edged out Romney by 5 points, but got 7 delegates to Romney’s 4. What gives here?
In these races, complicated formulas determine the delegates. In New Hampshire, you have to meet a threshold of 10%, and then get your share of the 12 delegates up for grabs this year. But the candidate with the most votes gets a bonus, whatever votes are left over for everyone else who didn’t make the threshold.
In Iowa, candidates get bonuses for everything. First, the first place finisher gets a whopping 12 delegate bonus, even if he or she wins by 1 single vote. Three delegates go to the winner of each congressional district.
It’s really amazing how little this matters to the media and most people generally. Obama was said to have destroyed Clinton in Iowa, even though their delegate counts weren’t that much apart, and when Clinton “came back” in New Hampshire, nobody noted that both front runners won the exact same number of delegates - nine.
Other posts by Prez08
- Lunch Breaks and Snow Storms - January 20th, 2008
- 10 + 15 ....+ 21 ? - January 14th, 2008
- Ryan O'Donnell inspires a new generation of political nerds - January 11th, 2008
- Now that's what I call a Christmas bonus - January 9th, 2008
January 11th, 2008 at 5:03 am
I don’t understand the bit that says:
“In New Hampshire, McCain didn’t exactly get a landslide. He edged out Romney by 5 points, but got 7 delegates to Romney’s 4. What gives here?”
How is that possible?
January 14th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Sheep Murderer,
McCain got 37% of the popular vote and 58% (7 of 12) of the delegate seats. Romney got 32% of the vote and 33% (4 of 12) of the delegates. Huckabee got 11% of the vote and 8% (1 of 12) of the delegates. So Romney and Huckabee got essentially their fair shares. Twenty percent of the popular vote went to candidates who didn’t win any delegates because they didn’t get over the 10% threshold. The rules have the effect of giving all of the delegates corresponding to these 20% of the voters to the plurality winner (McCain).
Hope this helps.
January 15th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Matthew Shugart found the details of the New Hampshire delegate allocation formula and posted them here. This explains how the bonus the plurality winner is accomplished, and should answer Sheep Murderer’s question more fully than I did previously.