2016 Popular Vote Numbers Updated

Posted by Rob Richie on April 20, 2016

FairVote has updated its online popular vote spreadsheet for the Republican and Democratic nomination contests in the wake of the New York State primary on April 19, with final official vote totals still to come. Some observations:

* New York State GOP turnout is low: Votes are still to be counted, but valid Republican primary votes in New York at this point is just over 850,000 as compared to over 1.1 million in Wisconsin even though New York's population is more than 19.7 million and Wisconsin's population just over 5.7 million.

* Ben Carson's votes won't count: Counties are reporting ballots cast for Ben Carson, but the state is not reporting them and they will be voided in the official tally. This decision will likely affect close to 10,000 voters.*

* Clinton widens lead over Sanders: In our imperfect vote tally (imperfect due to caucuses giving limited vote totals), Hillary Clinton has won 10,484,254 votes (56.4%) compared to 7,809,194 (42.0%) for Bernie Sanders; Clinton's lead is 57% to 41% in states holding state-administered primaries, which represents the same 16% margin she earned in New York.

* Trump has less than 38% of votes cast: Donald Trump has legitimate arguments to make against undemocratic aspects of the current delegate system, but still has a far higher share of convention delegates than his share of votes due to Republicans not consistently allocating delegates by proportional representation. Trump's sweeping New York win was his first 50%-plus victory; as we have analyzed before, several other wins for Trump likely would have been reversed with a majority system like ranked choice voting.

 * The original blog reported Westchester County numbers that since have been changed on the county website that suggested Ben Carson had won nearly as many votes  there as Ted Cruz.

 

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