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Monopoly Politics
2004 Projections
Initial Release
November 8, 2002
Updated March 3,
2004
On Wednesday, November 6,
we issued our initial projections in more than 350 races for
November 2004 using the same methodology that had a 99.9% accuracy
rate in projecting winners in more than 1,200 races from 1996-2002.
In March 2004, we updated these projections, based on the following
factors: open seats (where an incumbent would not be running for
re-election); Texas district line changes; and updated data on 2000
presidential results by district (we had made estimates in 50
districts for which this data
had not been available).
Our new projections can
be downloaded at 2004
projections (1MB Microsoft Excel file). We will be
making final adjustments to Texas projections in March.
The 2002 elections were strikingly
uncompetitive:
| Range |
Number of
races |
| Landslide (>=20% margin) |
358 |
| Comfortable (>=10) |
39 |
| Win (<10% margin) |
38 |
Without a major partisan surge for one
party, expect the 2004 elections to be even less
competitive:
|
Number of Projections |
| Range |
2002 |
2004 |
| Total Projection |
333 |
358 |
| Landslide (>=20% margin) |
195 |
213 |
| Comfortable (>=10) |
101 |
108 |
| Win (<10% margin) |
37 |
37 |
| Most vulnerable |
17 |
15 |
| No proj win |
83 |
62 |
These numbers may change slightly as final election
results become available, but the basic story -- a dramatic lack of
competition in 2002 and even less in 2004 -- will not
change. |
