Posted on November 06, 2006At a press conference today in Washington, DC, FairVote executive director Rob Richie released our new report Ten Stories About Election '06: What You Won't Learn From the Polls. It's a series of short essays on important election issues that, unfortunately, get stuck under the radar:
What You Won't Learn From The Polls
Pundits predict a Democratic sweep on November 7, 2006. But that's only the the tip of the iceberg...
1. What Do Votes Have To Do With It? Why a Democratic vote majority might not mean a Congressional majority 2. Monopoly Politics FairVote's seminal prediction model and how, on November 9, we'll predict nearly all House winners... for 2008 3. The Untouchables The growing list of House members on total cruise control 4. The Gerrymander & Money Myths The real roots of non-competition and GOP advantage 5. The Republican Turnout Machine Myth If not real in 2004, why would it be now? 6. The 50-State Question Measuring Dean's gamble in 2006... and 2016 7. Downballot GOP Blues What a Democratic wave could mean for state legislatures 8. Of Spoilers & Minority Rule Where split votes could swing seats - and already have 9. The Democrats' Paradox Why a win could shake up House leaders and the presidential race 10. Slouching Toward Diversity Who's to gain when a few more white men lose?
1. Incumbency Bumps: Measuring the bonus for House members, 1996-2004 2. Horserace Talk: The inside track on projecting 2006 Congressional races 3. Open Seat Analysis: How the Monopoly Politics model measures 2006 open seats
The report is based on the analysis presented in Monopoly Politics 2006. Look for our initial release of Monopoly Politics 2008 later this week. We'll project winners and victory margins in as many as 350 House races to take place in November 2008 - and provide a a full analysis of competitiveness trends in the 2006 elections.